AUG DGO is Barely Okay

Throw Momma Under the Bus : Stocks to Short & Put

Obviously, at the top of any SPX run to circa 1100 is when you'd wanna get on board with these.

Short Group Candle Glance

Put Group Candle Clance

Pre-Q4 Portfolio Adjustment Possibility

G20 Pittsburg Summit SEP 24 & 25 could bollocks-up the run.

Will $RUT 660 Stop P2?

Link To Base Chart

Link to TZA
Link to $RUT

AUG Retail Sales = $13,295 Billion Over Target!

Index EWTs With Fail Zones

Looking for a Legit Breach

The bullish argument is getting increasingly difficult as conflicting data rolls in.
JUL Total Consumer Credit just came in at a $21.5B loss - while - JUL Retail Sales came in $4.5B higher.

JUL CapU & iProd fell off a cliff as actual employment rose by 229,000 jobs.
Gooooood Gravy!
Actual employment dropped from JUL to AUG by 981,000.

(NFP & unemployment are such magician misdirections from what's really happening).
Does actual employment lead CapU & iProd?
I dunno?
I'm also dying to see if AUG Retail Sales and Durable Goods Orders + Non-DGO also drop with employment or if they remain high simply adding to Q3 revenues & earnings.

However, for the very short term I see a what-have-you EWT pattern bull run to SPX >1100 (Note the AUG 4 date!) to complete wave 5 of C.

Then all hell can break loose.

I have a hard time with the perpetual "The markets gonna fall simply because it's up" argument.
Dumb reason or not, there's gotta be a reason, a catalyst, to kick this bull in the balls, and... it just hasn't gotten here, yet.
I'm just waiting.

Using these Treasury auction bid-to-cover ratios as financial sonar "pings" to see how much money is out there on the sidelines + the unspent stimulus money I can conjure a truly ice cold, bear nightmare: What if what we all think is going to be EWT ABC5 of 2 @ SPX circa 1100 is actually... only A of 2!

Recent High Gainers Likely to Drop Soon

CandleGlance of first nine

Screened for 9/10 high gainers on lowest volume near 52 week highs.

^RUT 2000 Fail Zone!

3mo Chart

SPY Happy Bear & Happy Bull EWT Scenarios

SPY Weenie Hump Drop (Maybe)

TNA Is What I'll Buy Next TA Bottom or Gap Down

JUL Consumer Credit : Look For a Gap Down Open WED

JUL Full Manufacturing (MSIO) : Big Drop

Link to Source

A Spate of Charts : More Upside Ahead, Remain Bullish

$USD losing it's mojo


Sectors are all at/near weak TA Bottoms

Price by Volume Suck Zone

AUG ISM Services : Not Confidence Inspiring

AUG Retail Sales & DGO Targets/Adjusted Targets : RS $348,983/$339,146 , DGO-S $173,692/$184,692

A Q3 monthly ratio above these equals greater EPSs than Q2
Q2 RS/Employee = 2.47
Q2 DGO-S/Employee = 1.24

Total Employment x Q2 RS/E = RS Target
JUL : 141,055 x 2.47 = $348,406 Target - $355,243 delivered = -$6,837 adjustment to AUG target
AUG : 140,074 x 2.47 = $348,983 Target + (-$6837) adjustment = $339,146 adjusted target

Total Employment x Q2 DGO-S/E = DGO-S Target
JUL : 141,055 x 1.24 = $174,908 Target - $163,971 delivered = $10,937 adjustment to AUG target
AUG : 140,074 x 2.47 = $173,692 Target + $10,937 adjustment = $184,692 adjusted target

Labor Day Avatar

Testing the EPS Theory

SPY @ TA Bottom

JUL ISM Looking Very Nice: From JUL 48.9 to AUG 52.9, New Orders from JUL 55.3 to AUG 64.9

Investors were expecting the improvement, and many may have decided to take some money out of the market, playing it safe ahead of the government's August employment report, which comes out Friday.

"The market's priced all of this in, and a lot more, quite frankly, I can't imagine a piece of fundamental information that could meaningfully impact this market upward or downward," said Jeff Buetow, managing partner at Innealta Portfolio Advisors.