JAN RS/AE had a (Predictable) Huge Drop

SPY @ TA Botttom, May be Double

Q4 2009 RS/E $2.70!!

BAH HUMBUG!! Pink Slips in Yerr Stocking!!!

NOV RS/E: $2.48

NOV Actual Employment: Unremarkable

OCT Retail Sales per Employee = $2.64

OCT Actual Employment is VERY Bad

SEP DGO-Shipped : $13.4B over target, DGO-S/AE : $1.39, Q3 DGO-S : $1.25, Essentially Flat from Q2

Pre-Q4 Portfolio Adjustment Came True!

SEP Retail Sales & Q3 RS/E: Looking Real Good!

SEP Employment Drop: Don't Get Too Excited. However...

AUG DGO is Barely Okay

AUG Retail Sales & DGO Targets/Adjusted Targets : RS $348,983/$339,146 , DGO-S $173,692/$184,692

A Q3 monthly ratio above these equals greater EPSs than Q2
Q2 RS/Employee = 2.47
Q2 DGO-S/Employee = 1.24

Total Employment x Q2 RS/E = RS Target
JUL : 141,055 x 2.47 = $348,406 Target - $355,243 delivered = -$6,837 adjustment to AUG target
AUG : 140,074 x 2.47 = $348,983 Target + (-$6837) adjustment = $339,146 adjusted target

Total Employment x Q2 DGO-S/E = DGO-S Target
JUL : 141,055 x 1.24 = $174,908 Target - $163,971 delivered = $10,937 adjustment to AUG target
AUG : 140,074 x 2.47 = $173,692 Target + $10,937 adjustment = $184,692 adjusted target

Testing the EPS Theory

JUL DGO : Bad, bad, bad.

Japan's Recovery Not Good Enough

Japan's economy rebounds in 2Q on export growth

But economists said the nascent recovery could quickly run out of steam because domestic demand remains weak. Salaries are falling and the unemployment rate has risen to a six-year high of 5.4 percent as companies such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp. have cut thousands of jobs.

Chinese stocks tumble 5.8 pct on policy jitters

Recent data showing that retail sales, trade and investment rose in July, but not as fast as some had hoped, have further darkened buying sentiment.

"It might be that the market is overreacting and too sensitive," said Mao Sheng, an analyst for Huaxi Securities in the western city in Chengdu. "After all, there is no solid data showing Chinese economy is doing badly."

JUL Retail Sales : $355,243

NFP & Total Employment + RS & DGO Targets

JUL NFP Ball Park : 140,430 & JUL RS + DGO Projection

Link to base chart