Saturday, February 28, 2009
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Monday, February 23, 2009
Today's Losers may be Tomorrow's Winners
| NYSE Losers (by volume) | NASDAQ | AMEX |
Market Notes for the Week
MON -
Market drifted down all day on no particular bad news.
U.S. banks rallied on Monday amid reports that the U.S. may boost its stake in Citigroup converting preferred shares to common = 40% stake.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/banks-rally-us-poised-help/story.aspx?guid=%7BFC629DC6-22C1-4BE3-B3D5-80E54C9150C8%7D&dateid=39867.4020662384-951632837
@ 2p AIG announced a likely $60B loss & will seek additional Govt financing.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/aig-report-60-bln-loss/story.aspx?guid=%7B14A84634-29C6-4439-89DC-0499131F2C07%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN
Mkt ignored AIG's news on a rise then resumed daily drop.
TUE -
Consumer confidence - plummeted more than 12 points in February to 25, from the revised 37.4 last month. That was well below the 35.5 level that economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected. Didn't affect anything.
Market responds positively to BBernanke Treasury plans of new capital assistance program to ensure that banks have adequate buffers of capital. Part of the plan includes a public-private investment fund in which private capital will be leveraged with public funds. Additionally, the Federal Reserve, using capital provided by the Treasury, plans to expand the size and scope of the TALF to include securities backed by commercial real estate loans and potentially other types of asset-backed securities. Treasury's plan also includes a range of measures to help prevent unnecessary foreclosures.
Short covering rally on no specific news item
Figures showing stronger-than-expected OPEC compliance with their production cuts then sparked a rally in crude oil.
WED -
Ex Home Sales ^ VV ExHomes fell 5.3 percent to an annual rate of 4.49 million last month. Inventory supply increased slightly to 9.6 months.
1pm 5yr TBill auction
Stocks initially fell on growing pessimism about the banking industry and a home sales report that came in weaker than expected.
Uncertainty about the troubled banking system lifted when the Treasury Department said it's beginning to "stress test" the banks. The test will use two economic scenarios to measure banks' health, and the process is expected to be done by the end of April.
The government also gave the market some reassurance by confirming that it will buy preferred shares from banks that can be converted into common shares.
Investors found solace when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke rejected for the second straight day the notion that banks could be nationalized. Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday that fixing the mortgage market is necessary for fixing the financial market, even if it means bailout out irresponsible buyers.
Last half hour sell off in response to POTUS "Financial institutions that pose a serious risk to markets should be subject to serious government oversight".
THU -
Durable Goods Orders =
Initial Claims =
DGO fell a more-than-expected 5.2%.
ExTrans fell 2.5%, steeper than expected.
January new home sales fell more than expected to an annualized rate of 309,000 units, which is a record low.
Initial claims climbed 36,000 to 667,000 from the prior week. Continuing claims came in just below 5.03 million, up from nearly 5.00 million in the prior reading.
Market initially dismissed these reports.
12:30pHeathCare sector under pressure following details release of Obama's health care plan suggesting the plan will cut Medicare spending.
12:30pPOTUS' proposed budget shows a $1.75 trillion deficit for this fiscal year.
2:30pFDIC reported that the 252 troubled institutions hold a combined $159 billion in assets. At the end of the third quarter the list had 171 institutions holding $116 billion in assets.
FRI -
Q4 GDP Prelim v v
Chicago PMI =
Michigan Sentiment =
Market opens gapped down because C announced it will exchange common stock for up to $27.5 billion existing preferred equity at a conversion price of $3.25 per share. The government will match this exchange to a maximum of $25 billion face value of its preferred stock. The transaction is expected to increase Citigroup's tangible commn equity. Citigroup is also suspending dividends on its preferred shares and the common stock quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share. Citigroup is also reconstituting its board.
Standard & Poor revised its outlook for Citi to Negative. Moody's lowered Citi's long-term ratings.
Preliminary Q4 08 GDP (6.2%), consensus forecast (5.4%) annual rate of decline.
Personal consumption during the fourth quarter fell 4.3%. It was expected to decline 3.7% after showing a 3.5% decline in the advance report.
Next Week begins with...
Personal Income & Spending
Construction Spending
ISM
Market drifted down all day on no particular bad news.
U.S. banks rallied on Monday amid reports that the U.S. may boost its stake in Citigroup converting preferred shares to common = 40% stake.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/banks-rally-us-poised-help/story.aspx?guid=%7BFC629DC6-22C1-4BE3-B3D5-80E54C9150C8%7D&dateid=39867.4020662384-951632837
@ 2p AIG announced a likely $60B loss & will seek additional Govt financing.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/aig-report-60-bln-loss/story.aspx?guid=%7B14A84634-29C6-4439-89DC-0499131F2C07%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN
Mkt ignored AIG's news on a rise then resumed daily drop.
TUE -
Consumer confidence - plummeted more than 12 points in February to 25, from the revised 37.4 last month. That was well below the 35.5 level that economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected. Didn't affect anything.
Market responds positively to BBernanke Treasury plans of new capital assistance program to ensure that banks have adequate buffers of capital. Part of the plan includes a public-private investment fund in which private capital will be leveraged with public funds. Additionally, the Federal Reserve, using capital provided by the Treasury, plans to expand the size and scope of the TALF to include securities backed by commercial real estate loans and potentially other types of asset-backed securities. Treasury's plan also includes a range of measures to help prevent unnecessary foreclosures.
Short covering rally on no specific news item
Figures showing stronger-than-expected OPEC compliance with their production cuts then sparked a rally in crude oil.
WED -
Ex Home Sales ^ VV ExHomes fell 5.3 percent to an annual rate of 4.49 million last month. Inventory supply increased slightly to 9.6 months.
1pm 5yr TBill auction
Stocks initially fell on growing pessimism about the banking industry and a home sales report that came in weaker than expected.
Uncertainty about the troubled banking system lifted when the Treasury Department said it's beginning to "stress test" the banks. The test will use two economic scenarios to measure banks' health, and the process is expected to be done by the end of April.
The government also gave the market some reassurance by confirming that it will buy preferred shares from banks that can be converted into common shares.
Investors found solace when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke rejected for the second straight day the notion that banks could be nationalized. Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday that fixing the mortgage market is necessary for fixing the financial market, even if it means bailout out irresponsible buyers.
Last half hour sell off in response to POTUS "Financial institutions that pose a serious risk to markets should be subject to serious government oversight".
THU -
Durable Goods Orders =
Initial Claims =
DGO fell a more-than-expected 5.2%.
ExTrans fell 2.5%, steeper than expected.
January new home sales fell more than expected to an annualized rate of 309,000 units, which is a record low.
Initial claims climbed 36,000 to 667,000 from the prior week. Continuing claims came in just below 5.03 million, up from nearly 5.00 million in the prior reading.
Market initially dismissed these reports.
12:30pHeathCare sector under pressure following details release of Obama's health care plan suggesting the plan will cut Medicare spending.
12:30pPOTUS' proposed budget shows a $1.75 trillion deficit for this fiscal year.
2:30pFDIC reported that the 252 troubled institutions hold a combined $159 billion in assets. At the end of the third quarter the list had 171 institutions holding $116 billion in assets.
FRI -
Q4 GDP Prelim v v
Chicago PMI =
Michigan Sentiment =
Market opens gapped down because C announced it will exchange common stock for up to $27.5 billion existing preferred equity at a conversion price of $3.25 per share. The government will match this exchange to a maximum of $25 billion face value of its preferred stock. The transaction is expected to increase Citigroup's tangible commn equity. Citigroup is also suspending dividends on its preferred shares and the common stock quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share. Citigroup is also reconstituting its board.
Standard & Poor revised its outlook for Citi to Negative. Moody's lowered Citi's long-term ratings.
Preliminary Q4 08 GDP (6.2%), consensus forecast (5.4%) annual rate of decline.
Personal consumption during the fourth quarter fell 4.3%. It was expected to decline 3.7% after showing a 3.5% decline in the advance report.
Next Week begins with...
Personal Income & Spending
Construction Spending
ISM
Approaching a bottom
$TNX looks sick & ready to roll over : http://tinyurl.com/9ostomNot good for longs.
$SPXBullish is flirting with lows : http://tinyurl.com/9og4g3
$NYSI looks like no hope for a rally : http://tinyurl.com/65josb
$NYMO already @ a bottom (in dire conflict with $NYSI) : http://tinyurl.com/8rftpx
$NYA50 still has more room to go down (but not much) : http://tinyurl.com/9n9fzu
$CPCE looks like JoeSchmo couldn't fish or cut bait; surprisingly bullish, actually, considering the tape :http://cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Saturday, February 21, 2009
SPY FEB & MAR $76, $77 & $78 call studies
Percentage-wise, there was little difference between MAR & APR movements, so you're better off sticking with front-end month options.
Friday, February 20, 2009
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