SPY at Technical TA Bottom

NOV RS/E: $2.48

NOV Actual Employment: Unremarkable

Suprising Drop in OCT DGO!

OCT Retail Sales per Employee = $2.64

Health Care Bubble?

OCT Actual Employment is VERY Bad

TNA @ TA Bottom: Good Place For a Turn Around

SEP DGO-Shipped : $13.4B over target, DGO-S/AE : $1.39, Q3 DGO-S : $1.25, Essentially Flat from Q2

Richard Bove Day: Sell WFC => Market Drops Off A Cliff

Bove Says Sell Wells Fargo

VIX Drop Promotes Parabolic Bullishness

VIX, Puts & Bulls
As the $VIX decreases
put options decrease in cost (click on 1yr)
allowing bulls to
aggressively increase long positions.


Anticipate parabolic behavior
going into NOV
with increased OCT NFP (over SEP).
Watch Retail Sales per Actual Employment to move with AE or decrease.
If RS/AE increase with the climb that should improve earnings.

Low institutional participation
means fickle retail participation
resulting in extreme volatility.


OIL & THE $USD
Increased CO prices act as an artificial FFR increase
which our government may allow, to suppress inflationary pressures.

Additionally, alternative energy becomes competitive at higher CO prices.
Shifting the US mobility fuel dependence on imported oil to electricity is a long term goal.
In order to increase CO the $USD must come down.
Market will increase.

Attention All Top Callers : Two Chances To Get It Right

Be patient.
This AUG 25 post still holds true almost two months later.

SPY@ StockCharts

Also, EPS Overrides Fundies!

High Gainers

HERO Zone

Pre-Q4 Portfolio Adjustment Came True!

Grand Unification Theory

Dow Touches 10,000!

SEP Retail Sales & Q3 RS/E: Looking Real Good!

SEP Employment Drop: Don't Get Too Excited. However...

Happy Halloween Avatar

Which should I use?

AUG DGO is Barely Okay

Throw Momma Under the Bus : Stocks to Short & Put

Obviously, at the top of any SPX run to circa 1100 is when you'd wanna get on board with these.

Short Group Candle Glance

Put Group Candle Clance

Pre-Q4 Portfolio Adjustment Possibility

G20 Pittsburg Summit SEP 24 & 25 could bollocks-up the run.

Will $RUT 660 Stop P2?

Link To Base Chart

Link to TZA
Link to $RUT

AUG Retail Sales = $13,295 Billion Over Target!

Index EWTs With Fail Zones

Looking for a Legit Breach

The bullish argument is getting increasingly difficult as conflicting data rolls in.
JUL Total Consumer Credit just came in at a $21.5B loss - while - JUL Retail Sales came in $4.5B higher.

JUL CapU & iProd fell off a cliff as actual employment rose by 229,000 jobs.
Gooooood Gravy!
Actual employment dropped from JUL to AUG by 981,000.

(NFP & unemployment are such magician misdirections from what's really happening).
Does actual employment lead CapU & iProd?
I dunno?
I'm also dying to see if AUG Retail Sales and Durable Goods Orders + Non-DGO also drop with employment or if they remain high simply adding to Q3 revenues & earnings.

However, for the very short term I see a what-have-you EWT pattern bull run to SPX >1100 (Note the AUG 4 date!) to complete wave 5 of C.

Then all hell can break loose.

I have a hard time with the perpetual "The markets gonna fall simply because it's up" argument.
Dumb reason or not, there's gotta be a reason, a catalyst, to kick this bull in the balls, and... it just hasn't gotten here, yet.
I'm just waiting.

Using these Treasury auction bid-to-cover ratios as financial sonar "pings" to see how much money is out there on the sidelines + the unspent stimulus money I can conjure a truly ice cold, bear nightmare: What if what we all think is going to be EWT ABC5 of 2 @ SPX circa 1100 is actually... only A of 2!

Recent High Gainers Likely to Drop Soon

CandleGlance of first nine

Screened for 9/10 high gainers on lowest volume near 52 week highs.

^RUT 2000 Fail Zone!

3mo Chart

SPY Happy Bear & Happy Bull EWT Scenarios

SPY Weenie Hump Drop (Maybe)

TNA Is What I'll Buy Next TA Bottom or Gap Down

JUL Consumer Credit : Look For a Gap Down Open WED

JUL Full Manufacturing (MSIO) : Big Drop

Link to Source

A Spate of Charts : More Upside Ahead, Remain Bullish

$USD losing it's mojo


Sectors are all at/near weak TA Bottoms

Price by Volume Suck Zone

AUG ISM Services : Not Confidence Inspiring

AUG Retail Sales & DGO Targets/Adjusted Targets : RS $348,983/$339,146 , DGO-S $173,692/$184,692

A Q3 monthly ratio above these equals greater EPSs than Q2
Q2 RS/Employee = 2.47
Q2 DGO-S/Employee = 1.24

Total Employment x Q2 RS/E = RS Target
JUL : 141,055 x 2.47 = $348,406 Target - $355,243 delivered = -$6,837 adjustment to AUG target
AUG : 140,074 x 2.47 = $348,983 Target + (-$6837) adjustment = $339,146 adjusted target

Total Employment x Q2 DGO-S/E = DGO-S Target
JUL : 141,055 x 1.24 = $174,908 Target - $163,971 delivered = $10,937 adjustment to AUG target
AUG : 140,074 x 2.47 = $173,692 Target + $10,937 adjustment = $184,692 adjusted target

Labor Day Avatar

Testing the EPS Theory

SPY @ TA Bottom

JUL ISM Looking Very Nice: From JUL 48.9 to AUG 52.9, New Orders from JUL 55.3 to AUG 64.9

Investors were expecting the improvement, and many may have decided to take some money out of the market, playing it safe ahead of the government's August employment report, which comes out Friday.

"The market's priced all of this in, and a lot more, quite frankly, I can't imagine a piece of fundamental information that could meaningfully impact this market upward or downward," said Jeff Buetow, managing partner at Innealta Portfolio Advisors.

SPY All Over the Map Week

JUL DGO : Bad, bad, bad.

Two Chances to Get It Right

DGO Wednesdaaaaaaayyyy!!!!! : Gotta beat $174,908, real numbers

Chartwise, I think the week will be all over the map.

Japan's Recovery Not Good Enough

Japan's economy rebounds in 2Q on export growth

But economists said the nascent recovery could quickly run out of steam because domestic demand remains weak. Salaries are falling and the unemployment rate has risen to a six-year high of 5.4 percent as companies such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp. have cut thousands of jobs.

Chinese stocks tumble 5.8 pct on policy jitters

Recent data showing that retail sales, trade and investment rose in July, but not as fast as some had hoped, have further darkened buying sentiment.

"It might be that the market is overreacting and too sensitive," said Mao Sheng, an analyst for Huaxi Securities in the western city in Chengdu. "After all, there is no solid data showing Chinese economy is doing badly."

TA Juggernaut

SPY Week of INSANITY!

Despite all of this, the actual JUL Retail Sales numbers per employee look real good for Q3 EPS, Inventory reduction foster the restocking scenario, and buried in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment PDF was a statement of increased spending for H2.

Q3 & H2 Looks good to me.