Showing posts with label Initial Claims. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Initial Claims. Show all posts

Thursday, July 30, 2009

IUC: Down 78K! + Q3 Earnings Conundrum


Link to Release


The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 11 were in Puerto Rico (7.3 percent), Michigan (7.2), Oregon (6.7), Pennsylvania (6.4), Nevada (6.2), Wisconsin (6.1), Connecticut (5.6), New Jersey (5.6), Arkansas (5.5), California (5.5), North Carolina (5.5), and South Carolina (5.5).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 18 were in California (+4,290), Michigan (+3,654), Florida (+3,291), Connecticut (+749), and Indiana (+526),

while the largest decreases were in New York (-22,052), Wisconsin (-6,791), Missouri (-6,529), Pennsylvania (-6,420), and Ohio (-5,062).

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Initial Unemployment Claims : Down 90K to Spring/Summer Average

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 4 were in

Puerto Rico (6.9 percent),

Michigan (6.8),

Oregon (6.8),

Pennsylvania (6.4),

Nevada (6.2),

Wisconsin (6.1),

South Carolina (5.7),

New Jersey (5.6),

North Carolina (5.5), and

Connecticut (5.4).


The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 11 were in

New York (+12,504),

North Carolina (+10,382),

Florida (+10,043),

Missouri (+8,293), and

Tennessee (+6,943),


while the largest decreases were in

Michigan (-6,648),

Massachusetts (-2,910),

New Jersey (-2,888),

Indiana (-2,497), and

California (-1,755).


Thursday, July 16, 2009

Initial Unemployment Claims = UP! (Again!) 86,000 New Claims!


Link to Release


UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending July 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 522,000, a decrease of 47,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 569,000. The 4-week moving average was 584,500, a decrease of 22,500 from the previous week's revised average of 607,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.7 percent for the week ending July 4, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate of 5.2 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 4 was 6,273,000, a decrease of 642,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,915,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,666,750, a decrease of 110,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,777,000.

The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.449 million.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 667,534 in the week ending July 11, an increase of 86,389 from the previous week. There were 483,981 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.6 percent during the week ending July 4, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 6,135,066, an increase of 63,714 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.3 percent and the volume was 3,118,724.


The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 4 were in
Michigan (+12,144),
New York (+8,913),
Wisconsin (+5,838),
Indiana (+5,430), and
Ohio (+4,240),

while the largest decreases were in
New Jersey (-5,030),
California (-4,293),
North Carolina (-3,983),
Kansas (-3,544), and
Oregon (-1,454).

Thursday, July 9, 2009

Initial Claims : Not Seaonally Adjusted = UP 17K, Seasonally Adjusted = DOWN 52K



Link to Current Data


LOL!

U.S. jobless claims drop steeply

Burried in the article:
>> The "seasonal factors" the department uses to adjust the data to provide a better sense of the underlying trend had expected a large increase in claims in the latest week. Actual claims in fact rose by a much smaller amount, which when seasonally adjusted, generated a large fall. <<








Thursday, June 11, 2009

SPY Current & Upcoming Econ Events


Retail sales came in right on the button at 0.5% gain.

I totally fucked-up that call.
I don't believe the numbers, and I'm sure they'll be grossly revised down next month, but for today... I got it wrong.

D@mn ham.

FWIW, market should keep on going up for a few more weeks.
I think that even if all economic activity in the next month or two is flat that the market will be up.
If there was going ot be any reported weakness it would've been a lagging slump from MAY into APR.
Instead, we have a (bogus) APR Durable Goods Orders, foreclosure drenched ExHomes sales with increasing supply, declining drops in both initial claims & NFP and now a (dubious & largely flat) APR Retail Sales.
I don't see why any of this won't fare any worse going into JUL from JUN.
I'm sure the numbers will be just... ducky.



In fact, this past two weeks of infuriating, range bound consolidation should result in another short squeeze.

No rush till MAY Durable Goods two weeks away, though.
Options Expiration week is next week, so I'd expect some continuing, non-directional gyrations.
I'd be surprised if a lasting short squeeze manifested next week.

Initial Unemployment Claims Week Ending JUN 6 : 601,000

Link to Source


Not Seasonally Adjusted initial claims has increased.