Friday, June 26, 2009

JUN 29 Weekly Econ Consensus & Projection


Lately a lot of importance has been erroneously placed on the widely recognized innacuracy of the ADP report.
Still, expect some ridiculous market gyrations as a result.

Link MAY ISM report


Note that any number below 50 is still a decrease in manufacturing activity.
44 would be a slower loss than 42.8, but that's still the same as... NFP dropping by only 300k jobs rather than the previous 400k jobs.
We'd still be losing jobs! Thus the unemployment continues to increase.

Likewise, ISM at 44 is still a contraction (or loss) in manufacturing economic activity.
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