4th of July Actual Employment

SEP DGO-Shipped : $13.4B over target, DGO-S/AE : $1.39, Q3 DGO-S : $1.25, Essentially Flat from Q2

SEP Retail Sales & Q3 RS/E: Looking Real Good!

SEP Employment Drop: Don't Get Too Excited. However...

AUG DGO is Barely Okay

JUL Full Manufacturing (MSIO) : Big Drop

Link to Source

AUG ISM Services : Not Confidence Inspiring

AUG Retail Sales & DGO Targets/Adjusted Targets : RS $348,983/$339,146 , DGO-S $173,692/$184,692

A Q3 monthly ratio above these equals greater EPSs than Q2
Q2 RS/Employee = 2.47
Q2 DGO-S/Employee = 1.24

Total Employment x Q2 RS/E = RS Target
JUL : 141,055 x 2.47 = $348,406 Target - $355,243 delivered = -$6,837 adjustment to AUG target
AUG : 140,074 x 2.47 = $348,983 Target + (-$6837) adjustment = $339,146 adjusted target

Total Employment x Q2 DGO-S/E = DGO-S Target
JUL : 141,055 x 1.24 = $174,908 Target - $163,971 delivered = $10,937 adjustment to AUG target
AUG : 140,074 x 2.47 = $173,692 Target + $10,937 adjustment = $184,692 adjusted target

Testing the EPS Theory

JUL ISM Looking Very Nice: From JUL 48.9 to AUG 52.9, New Orders from JUL 55.3 to AUG 64.9

Investors were expecting the improvement, and many may have decided to take some money out of the market, playing it safe ahead of the government's August employment report, which comes out Friday.

"The market's priced all of this in, and a lot more, quite frankly, I can't imagine a piece of fundamental information that could meaningfully impact this market upward or downward," said Jeff Buetow, managing partner at Innealta Portfolio Advisors.

JUL DGO : Bad, bad, bad.

DGO Wednesdaaaaaaayyyy!!!!! : Gotta beat $174,908, real numbers

Chartwise, I think the week will be all over the map.

SPY Week of INSANITY!

Despite all of this, the actual JUL Retail Sales numbers per employee look real good for Q3 EPS, Inventory reduction foster the restocking scenario, and buried in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment PDF was a statement of increased spending for H2.

Q3 & H2 Looks good to me.

JUL Retail Sales : $355,243

NFP & Total Employment + RS & DGO Targets

AJC : Stocks in 'New Bull Market,' But Climb Will Be Slow

Link to Quote with time stamp


Link to CNBC interview

MarketWatch Article

JUL NFP Ball Park : 140,430 & JUL RS + DGO Projection

Link to base chart

IUC: Down 78K! + Q3 Earnings Conundrum

Link to Release

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 11 were in Puerto Rico (7.3 percent), Michigan (7.2), Oregon (6.7), Pennsylvania (6.4), Nevada (6.2), Wisconsin (6.1), Connecticut (5.6), New Jersey (5.6), Arkansas (5.5), California (5.5), North Carolina (5.5), and South Carolina (5.5).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 18 were in California (+4,290), Michigan (+3,654), Florida (+3,291), Connecticut (+749), and Indiana (+526),

while the largest decreases were in New York (-22,052), Wisconsin (-6,791), Missouri (-6,529), Pennsylvania (-6,420), and Ohio (-5,062).

RESTOCKING : Key Word for Q3

JUL Fed Beige Book Release

Q3 EPS Theory

5mo Chart
Note the bounces off of the 10EMA MAR through JUN.