Patience

As I listen to that putz Denis Kneel gloat over calling the recession over a month ago with today's issuance of (insignificant) New Home Sales I can't help but reflect upon a prior post about such things.

Home Sales Seasonality: Presumption vs. Prediction

Econ Events Into AUG + Prediction

As we saw from today's surprise drop JUN Consumer Confidence conensus & my own estimates can certainly be wrong.

I cannot emphasize enough how much my own bias & estimates rely on the seasonal up-swell of Existing Home sales into summer that will drop off into fall & over winter.

A lot of hopium is being placed on increasing home sales & price stabilization as a market bottom rather than my PoV that it is simply an ongoing disaster mitigation event.

Summer draws down = home sales draw down
Home sales draw down + increasing unemployment = more home inventory
More home inventory = drop in prices
Drop in prices = decreased homeowner equity/net worth
Decreased homeowner equity/net worth + increasing unemployment = decreased consumer spending
Decreased consumer spending = smaller EPSs
Smaller EPSs + same PE ratios = dropping market

If both EPSs + shrinking PE ratios = rapidly decaying market as money flows out of equities & commodities and into $USD & treasuries.

The good news is that gas prices should also drop!


"Yes", deflation concerns will be back on the table.

What I don't know is how government spending/overt jobs bills will counter any drop in consumer spending.

ExHomes for MAY: Lotsa downward Revisions

Link to PDF


Link to last post

MAY ExHomes Coming Up TUE!

Link to NAR ExHomes page


Consensus is for 4.85M MAY ExHomes, 10am EST.
I'm interested in the months of supply, APR revision & MAY median/mean prices.

Link to APR PDF

MAY DGO on TUE should be a fair bummer, so if these MAY ExHomes are riddled with foreclosures then this'll be down week ferr sherr, especially with any $USD grabbing news to boot.

Existing Homes Sales Charts

Link to data Source


Note the differences between 2006 & current Annualized Sales, Inventory & Months of Supply.