Link to JUN ISM Report
Link to MAY chart
Link to News Release page
Link MAY ISM report
What we're really looking for is New Orders.
Note that any PMI number below 50 is still a decrease in manufacturing activity.
44 would be a slower loss than 42.8, but that's still the same as... NFP dropping by only 300k jobs rather than the previous 400k jobs.
We'd still be losing jobs! Thus the unemployment continues to increase.
Likewise, ISM at 44 is still a contraction (or loss) in manufacturing economic activity.
Be mindful of a surprise "less than consensus" number like we saw with the consensus miss on JUN Consumer Confidence.
Consider it a down day on a miss because right on it's heels will be a likely poor NFP + unemployment number THU.
The only thing that can confuse the trading day would be a "less bad"/positive (immaterial) ADP report and a negative ISM.
If both positive then it should be a great day.
Still, be wary of THU's NFP.
10:30am update:
Headline number at 44.8 is "less bad"/favorable (although still clearly not good at all).
However, future orders are down from MAY 51.1 to JUN 49.2.
Does not bode well for JUL's headline.
