SPY (Surprising) End of Quarter Window Dressing Challenge

EOQ, Recently, there's been a lot of blabbity-blab about institutional investor "End of Quarter" sector rotation window dressing going on, so I wanted to "explore it" to validate or debunk, much akin to MaxPain, which IMHO is bunk.

I was sure this would also be hog-wash, and was surprised by the results.




But maybe this is because this is a bear market.
Remind me in a couple years to check this again.

SPY : Follow the Currencies

SPY 2009 Econ Graphs

These graphs will require some "paying attention to" on your behalf. The base source provides mostly fifteen year charts, some fourteen year charts, some eight, some six, most end in FEB 2009, some JAN 2009, some MAR 2009, some Q4 2008.

The light grey SPY/SPX charts I placed in the background end in MAR 2009, so there's often a single month bar hanging out on the right hand side - unless it's a chart that ends in MAR. Or if the chart ends in Q4 2008 there will be several bars hanging over the right margin.

Since the base source was not precise on begin dates I had to approximate & infer some, but it should be pretty close. If you see somethig that I can fix just let me know.

The up-down alignment is fairly subjective and often placed as vertically centered as possible, but sometimes adjusted up or down simply to reduce obfuscation of the index by the chart itself.

So... pay attention.
(You get what you pay for. HA!)

SPY 2week Review MAR 16 - 27

SPY May Have Some More Run In It

SPY & the 5count Wave revisited

SPY Soundly Breaks Wave 1 on $1B Toxic Plan & ExHomes

I am frustrated with this bull run.
The fundamental reasons for it are frivolous.

Citibank leaked memos and won't need to borrow any more taxpayer $$.
GE rating is cut by S&P, and now they're happy with GE.
More apartments being built.
Billions more in inflationary debt.
Fire sale ExHomes.

Market Notes MAR 23 - 27

Market Notes MAR 23 - 27

SPY Weekly & Daily TA

SPY 3mo Review : MAR 20

MAR 9 - 20

MAR 2 - 13

Current Swing - going SHORT, begining MAR 12

TNA sold @ $15.50 : http://tinyurl.com/covusd
TZA bought @ $67.50, $67.50 & $74.50 : http://tinyurl.com/dlm4jr
SZCOU bought @ $1.14 : http://tinyurl.com/cesjkd
SZCOW bought @ $0.75 : http://tinyurl.com/cyp7q3

Weekly Notes MAR 16 to 20

Weekly Notes

SPY EWT Six Corrective Wave Formations

No matter whom's EW count you wanna go with, currently the mkt is in a corrective 4 wave up , about to hit a five part 5 wave down before embarking on either a little corrective wave up or a big one.

So... "HEADZUP, LADIES!!!"

Know your enemy and respect him.

Wave Forms in Corrective WaveCorrective Wave forms are rather complicated, but basically we can categorize them into six major wave forms:

Zig-Zag : abc pattern composed of 5-3-5 sub-wave structure.

Flat : abc pattern composed of 3-3-5 sub-wave structure, with b equals a.

Irregular : abc pattern composed of 3-3-5 sub-wave structure, with b longer than a.

Horizontal Triangle : 5-wave triangular pattern composed of 3-3-3-3-3 sub-wave structure.

Double Three : abcx-abc pattern composed of any two from above, linked by x wave.

Triple Three : abcx-abcx-abc pattern composed of any three from above, linked by two x waves.

SPY EWT Count Variants

Original opinion:

I really don't have an opinion as to which of the [evilspeculator or market oracle counts] I think or feel is better or more accurate.

Toss up to me.

MAR 19 opinion:

I'm not convinced MAR 6 was the end of Primary 1 

- and -  

that this isn't the 4A wave.

I like the original EWI/evilspeculator count, which I have further embellished, but keeping with the spirit.

SPY SloStoch & Willie Eval for Q1 & Q4 08 EWT 3 to 4

Tightening Stops on Longs & Entering Initial SPY Puts

SPY EWT 3 to 4 Fibs Re-work

Since 3 to 4 should not move above the lows of 1 to 2 I had to re-work the fib retracements from the lows of 1 as the top to the lows of 3 as the bottom.

Key SPY Fib levels:

100% - 80.11 

(Good luck! But it did happen in FEB & MAR of 2008.)

62% - 75.14

50% - 73.61 (Passed that this morning.)

Week Review - March 9 - 13

Week Review - March 9 - 13

New Lows dropped to <100!

SPY for the next few... days? Weeks?

SPX EWT Rosetta Stone

SPY 3 to 4 EWT may be a A-B-C move

A-B-C between JAN - MAR 2008 &  OCT - NOV 08.

Think of an A-B-C move as a distorted letter N.

Soon, EWT 3 to 4 should come after the volume hits ~600M.