Prediction of Christmas Past & The 5Count Wave

On tap for this week

Week of March 09 - March 13

Date	ET	Release	For	Actual	Briefing.com	Consensus	Prior	Revised From
Mar 10	10:00	Wholesale Inventories	Jan		NA	-1.0%	-1.4%
Mar 11	10:30	Crude Inventories	03/06		NA	NA	-757K
Mar 11	14:00	Treasury Budget	Feb		NA	-$200B	NA
Mar 12	08:30	Initial Claims	03/07		NA	640K	639K
Mar 12	08:30	Retail Sales	Feb		NA	-0.4%	1.0%
Mar 12	08:30	Retail Sales ex-auto	Feb		NA	-0.2%	0.9%
Mar 12	10:00	Business Inventories	Jan		NA	-1.1%	-1.3%
Mar 13	08:30	Export Prices ex-ag.	Feb		NA	NA	0.0%
Mar 13	08:30	Import Prices ex-oil	Feb		NA	NA	-0.8%
Mar 13	08:30	Trade Balance	Jan		NA	-$38.2B	-$39.9B
Mar 13	10:00	Mich Sentiment-Prel	Mar		NA	56.3	56.3

SPYsight Exclusive ! It happened last month. It may happen AGAIN!!

"The U.S. will probably sell a record $33 billion of three- year notes on March 10, $17 billion of 10-year debt the following day and $10 billion of 30-year bonds on March 12, according to Wrightson ICAP LLC, a research unit of the world’s largest inter- dealer broker. The auctions follow $94 billion of note sales last week. << http://tinyurl.com/djf4cj


The 10 year notes are the Government's bread and butter.
SecTreas Geithner deliberately fumbled the $350B TARP plans FEB 10 to guarantee the sale of the T-Notes FEB 12.

We all know the market is near a bottom - and that it's not absolutely there just yet.

STEP 1 - MON or TUE (or maybe even WED morning since the bonds aren't sold till 1pm) anticipate some contrived pseudo-problem, real or perceptual, to be released by a government entity; something that will shake an already traumatized market (SKF may hit $400).
STEP 2 - 1pm the T-Notes go on sale for dirt cheap.
STEP 3 - THU or FRI some happy juice is squeezed into the media whore and the market may very well rally then.

Wait to go long WED, unless the market takes off anyway.
Maybe the T-Notes don't have to be sold.

XLF is the canary in the coal mine

What I'm looking for...

You might as well be short in the meanwhile.

Wait for the New Lows to drop to the 100 line (left side margin).

Note that the upper $SPXA50 (S&P stocks below their 50MA) has just approached the bottom.

The current movement is more like the JUN to JUL 2007 drop than the SEP to OCT drop, so be aware that the mkt can just keep bottoming a while longer.

Someone remind me to pull a list of NYSE losers the day this all falls to the floor.

The biggest losers one day often become the highest gainers the next.
Also, this can happen midday.
I recall that NOV 21st turnaround happened midday.
http://tinyurl.com/brtt7r

How do high volume spikes end?

The spikes that make wicks above the surrounding terrain, like these...


... (usually) end up pin-pointing market bottoms, like these:

MAR 6 - 3mo review

FEB 23 - MAR 6 2wk review

Another drop for WED

Today was yet another low volume drop day, so no bottom just yet.
http://tinyurl.com/8oj5a6

I'm figuring out that option buyers are just as clueless as anyone else.
The $CPCE ratio don't mean sh!t.
The ISEE don't mean sh!t.
Candlestick patterns don't mean sh!t.
Econ news don't mean sh!t.
$TNX don't mean sh!t.
PoG don't mean sh!t.
But volume... Volume will show you when everyone has p!$$ed their pants.

I'm waiting for the New Highs/Actives to ring the bell before going hog wild with calls.
http://tinyurl.com/byro6n
And I'm waiting for the $SPX / % above 50MA to seriously drop.
http://tinyurl.com/bdau2a

An intermediate bottom is near.
It could be SPX 680 near...
or 640 near...
or 600 near.
But any old day now there's gonna be one nasty-a$$ short covering rally based on some super duper news release that changes the market parameters/matrix/fundamentals

Week's Notes MAR 2 to 6

Week's Notes MAR 2 to 6