SPYsight

4th of July Actual Employment

2010-07-02T14:37:00.002-04:00

Looking for FAS $102 + Rising Money Flow

2010-04-27T12:51:00.001-04:00

SPY Approaching TA Bottom Waiting on NFP/AE

2010-03-31T22:41:00.001-04:00

JAN RS/AE had a (Predictable) Huge Drop

2010-02-12T09:47:00.001-05:00

SPY @ TA Botttom, May be Double

2010-01-28T16:20:00.001-05:00

Q4 2009 RS/E $2.70!!

2010-01-14T11:07:00.001-05:00

BAH HUMBUG!! Pink Slips in Yerr Stocking!!!

2010-01-08T16:35:00.001-05:00

SPY at Technical TA Bottom

2009-12-11T16:53:00.002-05:00

NOV RS/E: $2.48

2009-12-11T12:01:00.002-05:00

NOV Actual Employment: Unremarkable

2009-12-10T17:32:00.002-05:00

Suprising Drop in OCT DGO!

2009-12-01T16:46:00.001-05:00

OCT Retail Sales per Employee = $2.64

2009-11-16T10:31:00.002-05:00

Health Care Bubble?

2009-11-12T08:11:00.002-05:00

OCT Actual Employment is VERY Bad

2009-11-06T09:20:00.002-05:00

TNA @ TA Bottom: Good Place For a Turn Around

2009-10-28T11:02:00.001-04:00

SEP DGO-Shipped : $13.4B over target, DGO-S/AE : $1.39, Q3 DGO-S : $1.25, Essentially Flat from Q2

2009-10-28T10:31:00.003-04:00

Richard Bove Day: Sell WFC => Market Drops Off A Cliff

2009-10-22T10:46:00.003-04:00

Bove Says Sell Wells Fargo

VIX Drop Promotes Parabolic Bullishness

2009-10-22T02:45:00.007-04:00

VIX, Puts & Bulls
As the $VIX decreases
put options decrease in cost (click on 1yr)
allowing bulls to
aggressively increase long positions.

Anticipate parabolic behavior
going into NOV
with increased OCT NFP (over SEP).
Watch Retail Sales per Actual Employment to move with AE or decrease.
If RS/AE increase with the climb that should improve earnings.

Low institutional participation
means fickle retail participation
resulting in extreme volatility.

OIL & THE $USD
Increased CO prices act as an artificial FFR increase
which our government may allow, to suppress inflationary pressures.

Additionally, alternative energy becomes competitive at higher CO prices.
Shifting the US mobility fuel dependence on imported oil to electricity is a long term goal.
In order to increase CO the $USD must come down.
Market will increase.

Attention All Top Callers : Two Chances To Get It Right

2009-10-20T09:04:00.003-04:00

Be patient.
This AUG 25 post still holds true almost two months later.

SPY@ StockCharts

Also, EPS Overrides Fundies!

High Gainers

2009-10-19T17:24:00.001-04:00

HERO Zone

2009-10-19T14:58:00.001-04:00

Pre-Q4 Portfolio Adjustment Came True!

2009-10-18T23:10:00.001-04:00

Grand Unification Theory

2009-10-15T21:40:00.003-04:00

Dow Touches 10,000!

2009-10-14T13:47:00.000-04:00

SEP Retail Sales & Q3 RS/E: Looking Real Good!

2009-10-14T12:03:00.003-04:00

SEP Employment Drop: Don't Get Too Excited. However...

2009-10-02T17:28:00.003-04:00

Happy Halloween Avatar

2009-10-02T17:22:00.002-04:00

Which should I use?

AUG DGO is Barely Okay

2009-09-25T10:31:00.002-04:00

Throw Momma Under the Bus : Stocks to Short & Put

2009-09-25T09:36:00.003-04:00

Obviously, at the top of any SPX run to circa 1100 is when you'd wanna get on board with these.

Short Group Candle Glance

Put Group Candle Clance

Pre-Q4 Portfolio Adjustment Possibility

2009-09-18T02:00:00.002-04:00

G20 Pittsburg Summit SEP 24 & 25 could bollocks-up the run.

Will $RUT 660 Stop P2?

2009-09-16T18:17:00.007-04:00

Link To Base Chart

Link to TZA
Link to $RUT

AUG Retail Sales = $13,295 Billion Over Target!

2009-09-16T10:51:00.001-04:00

Index EWTs With Fail Zones

2009-09-12T14:10:00.001-04:00

Looking for a Legit Breach

2009-09-11T09:15:00.007-04:00

The bullish argument is getting increasingly difficult as conflicting data rolls in.
JUL Total Consumer Credit just came in at a $21.5B loss - while - JUL Retail Sales came in $4.5B higher.

JUL CapU & iProd fell off a cliff as actual employment rose by 229,000 jobs.
Gooooood Gravy!
Actual employment dropped from JUL to AUG by 981,000.

(NFP & unemployment are such magician misdirections from what's really happening).
Does actual employment lead CapU & iProd?
I dunno?
I'm also dying to see if AUG Retail Sales and Durable Goods Orders + Non-DGO also drop with employment or if they remain high simply adding to Q3 revenues & earnings.

However, for the very short term I see a what-have-you EWT pattern bull run to SPX >1100 (Note the AUG 4 date!) to complete wave 5 of C.

Then all hell can break loose.

I have a hard time with the perpetual "The markets gonna fall simply because it's up" argument.
Dumb reason or not, there's gotta be a reason, a catalyst, to kick this bull in the balls, and... it just hasn't gotten here, yet.
I'm just waiting.

Using these Treasury auction bid-to-cover ratios as financial sonar "pings" to see how much money is out there on the sidelines + the unspent stimulus money I can conjure a truly ice cold, bear nightmare: What if what we all think is going to be EWT ABC5 of 2 @ SPX circa 1100 is actually... only A of 2!

Recent High Gainers Likely to Drop Soon

2009-09-11T08:54:00.003-04:00

CandleGlance of first nine

Screened for 9/10 high gainers on lowest volume near 52 week highs.

^RUT 2000 Fail Zone!

2009-09-10T10:34:00.004-04:00

3mo Chart

SPY Happy Bear & Happy Bull EWT Scenarios

2009-09-09T11:53:00.001-04:00

SPY Weenie Hump Drop (Maybe)

2009-09-08T19:50:00.000-04:00

TNA Is What I'll Buy Next TA Bottom or Gap Down

2009-09-08T13:46:00.001-04:00

JUL Consumer Credit : Look For a Gap Down Open WED

2009-09-08T11:45:00.002-04:00

JUL Full Manufacturing (MSIO) : Big Drop

2009-09-07T00:29:00.006-04:00

Link to Source

A Spate of Charts : More Upside Ahead, Remain Bullish

2009-09-06T19:09:00.007-04:00

$USD losing it's mojo

Sectors are all at/near weak TA Bottoms

Price by Volume Suck Zone

AUG ISM Services : Not Confidence Inspiring

2009-09-06T18:24:00.002-04:00

AUG Retail Sales & DGO Targets/Adjusted Targets : RS $348,983/$339,146 , DGO-S $173,692/$184,692

2009-09-05T14:35:00.004-04:00

A Q3 monthly ratio above these equals greater EPSs than Q2
Q2 RS/Employee = 2.47
Q2 DGO-S/Employee = 1.24

Total Employment x Q2 RS/E = RS Target
JUL : 141,055 x 2.47 = $348,406 Target - $355,243 delivered = -$6,837 adjustment to AUG target
AUG : 140,074 x 2.47 = $348,983 Target + (-$6837) adjustment = $339,146 adjusted target

Total Employment x Q2 DGO-S/E = DGO-S Target
JUL : 141,055 x 1.24 = $174,908 Target - $163,971 delivered = $10,937 adjustment to AUG target
AUG : 140,074 x 2.47 = $173,692 Target + $10,937 adjustment = $184,692 adjusted target

Labor Day Avatar

2009-09-04T10:21:00.002-04:00

Testing the EPS Theory

2009-09-04T10:07:00.001-04:00

SPY @ TA Bottom

2009-09-03T15:16:00.002-04:00

JUL ISM Looking Very Nice: From JUL 48.9 to AUG 52.9, New Orders from JUL 55.3 to AUG 64.9

2009-09-01T11:07:00.005-04:00

Investors were expecting the improvement, and many may have decided to take some money out of the market, playing it safe ahead of the government's August employment report, which comes out Friday.

"The market's priced all of this in, and a lot more, quite frankly, I can't imagine a piece of fundamental information that could meaningfully impact this market upward or downward," said Jeff Buetow, managing partner at Innealta Portfolio Advisors.

SPY All Over the Map Week

2009-08-30T11:03:00.002-04:00

JUL DGO : Bad, bad, bad.

2009-08-26T10:18:00.001-04:00

Two Chances to Get It Right

2009-08-25T14:23:00.000-04:00

DGO Wednesdaaaaaaayyyy!!!!! : Gotta beat $174,908, real numbers

2009-08-23T13:09:00.004-04:00

Chartwise, I think the week will be all over the map.

Japan's Recovery Not Good Enough

2009-08-20T09:03:00.003-04:00

Japan's economy rebounds in 2Q on export growth

But economists said the nascent recovery could quickly run out of steam because domestic demand remains weak. Salaries are falling and the unemployment rate has risen to a six-year high of 5.4 percent as companies such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Sony Corp. have cut thousands of jobs.

Chinese stocks tumble 5.8 pct on policy jitters

Recent data showing that retail sales, trade and investment rose in July, but not as fast as some had hoped, have further darkened buying sentiment.

"It might be that the market is overreacting and too sensitive," said Mao Sheng, an analyst for Huaxi Securities in the western city in Chengdu. "After all, there is no solid data showing Chinese economy is doing badly."

TA Juggernaut

2009-08-16T14:21:00.005-04:00

SPY Week of INSANITY!

2009-08-16T09:49:00.004-04:00

Despite all of this, the actual JUL Retail Sales numbers per employee look real good for Q3 EPS, Inventory reduction foster the restocking scenario, and buried in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment PDF was a statement of increased spending for H2.

Q3 & H2 Looks good to me.

CPI Down (Deflation Concerns), CapU&iProd Up (Mostly Autos), Mich Consumer Sentiment Down (Job Loss Worry)

2009-08-14T12:01:00.004-04:00

CPI data suggests increased deflation possibility

Industrial Production rises

Flippin' out over Consumer Sentiment

More Consumer Sentiment flippin' out

JUL Retail Sales : $355,243

2009-08-13T10:28:00.004-04:00

FFR Decisions & Market Response

2009-08-12T01:15:00.002-04:00

Wholesale JUN DGO & N-DGO Sales & Inventories

2009-08-11T11:51:00.001-04:00

Labor Force, Monthly, 10yr

2009-08-10T10:47:00.002-04:00

I'm not real sure (yet) on how this'll figure into the monthly employment thingie-dingie, organic consumer demand & EPSs.

I just wanted to record it before I forgot it.

USD Should Have Done Better Than It's Peer Group

2009-08-08T14:13:00.002-04:00

NFP & Total Employment + RS & DGO Targets

2009-08-07T14:41:00.002-04:00

AJC : Stocks in 'New Bull Market,' But Climb Will Be Slow

2009-08-06T17:24:00.005-04:00

Link to Quote with time stamp

Link to CNBC interview

MarketWatch Article

INTC (Proxy for USD) $20 Near Term Target

2009-08-06T11:19:00.003-04:00

Base Chart

NQHR

IUC : Down another 46K!

2009-08-06T09:07:00.002-04:00

JUL NFP Ball Park : 140,430 & JUL RS + DGO Projection

2009-08-05T11:30:00.003-04:00

Link to base chart

The SUCK ZONE!

2009-08-04T13:04:00.003-04:00

Creating "lift".

JUL ISM is GOOD! from 44.8 JUN to 48.9 JUL, New Orders 49.2 JUN to 55.3 JUL

2009-08-03T10:22:00.003-04:00

Link to Release

Bull Malaise: Back in on USD @ $26.56

2009-08-03T09:02:00.002-04:00

Moving Averages, Market & Revenue per Employee

2009-08-03T08:30:00.002-04:00

Out of EDZ FAZ TZA at 30% losses, Begin USD @ $27.46 with 3% Trailing Stop

2009-07-30T10:37:00.003-04:00

IUC: Down 78K! + Q3 Earnings Conundrum

2009-07-30T09:54:00.003-04:00

Link to Release

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 11 were in Puerto Rico (7.3 percent), Michigan (7.2), Oregon (6.7), Pennsylvania (6.4), Nevada (6.2), Wisconsin (6.1), Connecticut (5.6), New Jersey (5.6), Arkansas (5.5), California (5.5), North Carolina (5.5), and South Carolina (5.5).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 18 were in California (+4,290), Michigan (+3,654), Florida (+3,291), Connecticut (+749), and Indiana (+526),

while the largest decreases were in New York (-22,052), Wisconsin (-6,791), Missouri (-6,529), Pennsylvania (-6,420), and Ohio (-5,062).

RESTOCKING : Key Word for Q3

2009-07-29T14:05:00.001-04:00

JUL Fed Beige Book Release

Q3 EPS Theory

2009-07-29T12:21:00.006-04:00

5mo Chart
Note the bounces off of the 10EMA MAR through JUN.

JUN DGO: New Orders up $12B MAY to JUN!

2009-07-29T09:01:00.005-04:00

Link to PDF

New Orders

[Seasonally adjusted] New orders for manufactured durable goods in June decreased $4.1 billion or 2.5 percent to $158.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This decrease followed two consecutive monthly increases including a 1.3 percent May increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.1 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 0.7 percent.

Shipments

[Seasonally adjusted] Shipments of manufactured durable goods in June, down eleven consecutive months, decreased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $168.3 billion. This was the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 2.6 percent May decrease.

Unfilled Orders

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in June, down nine consecutive months, decreased $6.6 billion or 0.9 percent to $740.1 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent May decrease.

Inventories

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in June, down six consecutive months, decreased $3.0 billion or 0.9 percent to $318.8 billion. This followed a 1.1 percent May decrease.

Capital Goods Industries

Nondefense

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in June decreased $1.8 billion or 3.4 percent to $51.3 billion.

Defense

Defense new orders for capital goods in June decreased $3.4 billion or 28.3 percent to $8.6 billion.

JUL Consumer Sentiment : 46.6 a vs 49 e, down from JUN 49.3

2009-07-28T12:39:00.003-04:00

Stocks slip as July consumer confidence falls

Report

Patience

2009-07-27T20:05:00.002-04:00

As I listen to that putz Denis Kneel gloat over calling the recession over a month ago with today's issuance of (insignificant) New Home Sales I can't help but reflect upon a prior post about such things.

Revenues to Employment Ratio

2009-07-27T12:15:00.009-04:00

Throughout earnings season everyone's all of a sudden flippin' out over top line (revenues) vs payroll cuts, thus margin. Funny how over the last three months no one said "Boo" about such, but now are.

So lettuce check out the ratio between the two largest measures of both: Retail Sales & Employment.

The number everyone's clucking about these days is UNemployment, which is silly in regards to earnings.
Stocks rise & fall based upon expected earnings, of which employment is a factor, not the number of people whom are not working.

Employed people cost money/earnings.
Unemployed people cost earnings nothing.
Obviously increasing unemployment may drag on revenues, but as long as revenues & employment move in tandem so will earnings.
Revenues can drop, but if employment drops with it earnings remain stable.
Should revenues increase on flat employment earnings will increase, and that is the foundation & hope of the current stupid run.

I wanna see if by following the monthly Revenues to Employment ratio if we can get a feel for how Q3 EPS will turn out.
Fluctuations in the $USD will affect revenues.

Q3, Retail Sales & this Current Big, Stupid Run

2009-07-25T22:42:00.004-04:00

Just in case I haven't made it clear: I hate adjusted numbers.

They are bullsh!t.

Corporations don't report revenues in seasonally adjusted numbers, so I fail to understand the benefit of headlining econ fundies in seasonally adjusted numbers.

This current run is just plain stupid.
Why is the market on a run with mass job cuts continuing and unemployment being widely & overtly touted as continuing to worsen from 9.5% to 10% (which means it will probably get worse than that)?

Corporations are as lean as they are likely to get from both an employment & inventory vantage point.
Productivity/revenue per employee is as high as it is likely to get.
If the stimulus spending out-paces housing induced credit loss spending then any additional revenue that comes corporate ways will add to the top line while expenses/labor remain level will show up as additional earnings.

Viewed in that light, the run is justifiable.

3mo Gainers

2009-07-24T11:50:00.002-04:00

SPX Top 20 Component Q2 Revenues & Earnings to Date

2009-07-24T10:56:00.001-04:00

Q3 EPS', $USD & $WTIC

2009-07-23T13:14:00.004-04:00

Initial Unemployment Claims : Down 90K to Spring/Summer Average

2009-07-23T11:52:00.003-04:00

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending July 4 were in

Puerto Rico (6.9 percent),

Michigan (6.8),

Oregon (6.8),

Pennsylvania (6.4),

Nevada (6.2),

Wisconsin (6.1),

South Carolina (5.7),

New Jersey (5.6),

North Carolina (5.5), and

Connecticut (5.4).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 11 were in

New York (+12,504),

North Carolina (+10,382),

Florida (+10,043),

Missouri (+8,293), and

Tennessee (+6,943),

while the largest decreases were in

Michigan (-6,648),

Massachusetts (-2,910),

New Jersey (-2,888),

Indiana (-2,497), and

California (-1,755).

SPY: Fish or Cut Bait?

2009-07-20T13:33:00.005-04:00

Link to last Biggest Losers stock screen

Initial Unemployment Claims Seasonal Factor Analysis

2009-07-20T10:20:00.006-04:00

Link to Dept. of Labor IUC Base Data

... one week later... * * * EPS over rides fundies * * *

2009-07-16T12:12:00.008-04:00

* * * EPS over rides fundies * * *

Econ events should have driven this week through the floor.

Bad (real) JUN Retail Sales.

Bad JUN iProd & CapU.

Another gasoline build.

Bad (real) Initial Claims.

Yet...

We started the week with Meridith Whitney Day! (OMG.)

Followed by GS EPS (results which won't carry over to the rest of the financials).

Followed by INTC selling a bunch of stuff to China (they say they'll do it again in Q3).

And JPM has put out some decent numbers.

However, if you look at top line Revenues across many of the Q2 EPSs of companies you've actually heard of, you'll see many flat to dropping Q1 to Q2.

I hope some more of that govt. stimulus is coming.

* * * EPS over rides fundies * * *

Initial Unemployment Claims = UP! (Again!) 86,000 New Claims!

2009-07-16T08:53:00.003-04:00

Link to Release

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending July 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 522,000, a decrease of 47,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 569,000. The 4-week moving average was 584,500, a decrease of 22,500 from the previous week's revised average of 607,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.7 percent for the week ending July 4, a decrease of 0.5 percentage point from the prior week's revised rate of 5.2 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 4 was 6,273,000, a decrease of 642,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,915,000. The 4-week moving average was 6,666,750, a decrease of 110,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 6,777,000.

The fiscal year-to-date average for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment for all programs is 5.449 million.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 667,534 in the week ending July 11, an increase of 86,389 from the previous week. There were 483,981 initial claims in the comparable week in 2008.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 4.6 percent during the week ending July 4, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 6,135,066, an increase of 63,714 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.3 percent and the volume was 3,118,724.

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending July 4 were in
Michigan (+12,144),
New York (+8,913),
Wisconsin (+5,838),
Indiana (+5,430), and
Ohio (+4,240),

while the largest decreases were in
New Jersey (-5,030),
California (-4,293),
North Carolina (-3,983),
Kansas (-3,544), and
Oregon (-1,454).

INTC & Leveraged ETFs

2009-07-15T11:05:00.002-04:00

JUN: iProd 95.4 + CapU 68.0

2009-07-15T08:11:00.003-04:00

Release Schedule (available at 9:15 a.m.)

iProd down + CapU down!

This week has many fun & exciting econ releases, JUN Retail Sales being the biggest.

Despite PPI (flat), despite CPI (flat), despite EIA CO reserves (flat to increasing), despite housing starts & permits (OMG, they need to drop, but the market would see that as weakness) the second biggest econ event is JUN Industrial Production & Utilization.

I can't find non-Seasonally Adjusted numbers, so we'll just have to deal with what we have.

Given retail sales & consumer sentiment & inventory drops & no real good reason for everyone to order stuff I suspect production & utilization to both be down.

Prescient, eh?

Fly in the ointment: MAY DGO New Orders were up.
This may mean an increase in JUN iProd&CapU.

Q2 2009 EPS Releases of S&P Top 20

2009-07-14T13:31:00.024-04:00

Link to Quarterly EPSs

Link to Currency Grief

Currently the links below are to press releases by the companies.
As 10-Qs are made available I'll update to those as they may contain additional information.

JUN 14
JNJ $1.18 actual - $1.11 estimated
INTC (Excluding EU fine) $0.18 actual - $0.08 estimated

JUN 16
IBM $2.32 a - $2.02 e
JPM $0.28 a - $0.30 e
GOOG $4.66 a - $4.50 e

JUN 17
GE $0.26 a - $0.24 e
BAC $0.33a - $0.12 e

JUN 21
AAPL $1.35 a - $1.15 e
KO $0.88 a - $0.89 e

JUN 22
WFC $0.57 a - $0.37 e
PEP $1.06 a - $0.99 e
PFE $0.34 a - $0.47 e

JUN 23
MSFT $0.34 a - $0.38 e
T $0.54 a - $0.53 e

JUN 30
XOM $0.84 a - $0.95 e

JUN 31
CVX $0.87 a - $1.06 e

AUG 5
PG $0.80 a - $0.79 e
CSCO $0.24 e

AUG 13
WMT $0.85 e

AUG 18
HPQ $0.88 e

JUN Retail Sales

2009-07-14T08:22:00.008-04:00

Link to Site

JUN Advance PDF

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES
June 2009

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $342.1 billion, an increase of 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, [LOL! The truth is otherwise, a 1.12% drop!], but 9.0 percent (±0.7%) below June 2008.

Total sales for the April through June 2009 period were down 9.6 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago.
The April to May 2009 percent change was unrevised from 0.5 percent (±0.3%).

Retail trade sales were up 0.8 percent (±0.7%) from May 2009, but 10.0 percent (±0.7%) below last year.

Gasoline stations sales were down 31.6 percent (±1.5%) from June 2008 and motor vehicle and parts dealers sales were down 14.1 percent (±2.5%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication. Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

The Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for July is scheduled to be released August 13, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

GS, Whitney & the Financials

2009-07-13T11:22:00.002-04:00

Weakening Q2 $USD = Increasing Foreign Revenue

2009-07-13T09:36:00.007-04:00

Article with Foreign & Domestic Revenue table!

Link to the revenue table only

$USD % Gain & Loss from Q1 through Q2

Since XOM, 4.13% of the S&P weighting, is due JUL 30 before market open (CVX due JUL 31, BMO) this has a potential of being a real downer.

Biggest 4 Week Losers: May be the Biggest Gainers at the Next Bottom

2009-07-12T14:11:00.003-04:00

Link to first nine

Link to remainder

S&P Top 20 Component Q2 EPS Release Dates

2009-07-12T13:42:00.005-04:00

JUN Retail Sales is the big scheduled econ event for the week, on the 14th.
Consensus is flat at 50-something.
I'm expecting something a wee south of that.

Just the same, all the hub-bub will be about earnings season, and I don't know if that will drown out Retail Sales or just reflect it.

Link to quarterly EPS recent past & current guesstimates.

Link to candle glance of JUL 13 to 17 group.

Link to candle glance of JUL 20 to 24 group.

Link to candle glance of JUL 27 through AUG group.

Strikes One, Two & Three... Leading to Strike Four?

2009-07-10T11:18:00.004-04:00

THU's Same Store Sales (raw data not available) was generally poor.

Today's preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment was surprisingly poor.

It was not far off and fairly reflective of the JUN 30th also (surprisingly) poor JUN Consumer Confidence report.

0830 next TUE will be the week's biggest scheduled econ event: Retail Sales.

JUN Same Store Sales (in red) cover a large % of the Retail Sales total.

I think it fair to extrapolate diminishing data in SSS (maybe even sporting goods, as well) plus a known crack spread decline can't be good for Gasoline Stations (8-9% of total) and we can anticipate a poor non-adjusted JUL Retail Sales.

(The powers that be can divide the real numbers by whatever pie-in-the-sky <1.0)

SPY at Short Term TA Bottom: Time to Look for Longs

2009-07-09T17:47:00.007-04:00

Link to EDC & TNA chart
(FAZ is being a freak with their reverse split.)

OEF is next week, so its a wee close for JUL calls.

SPY AUG $90 calls

Initial Claims : Not Seaonally Adjusted = UP 17K, Seasonally Adjusted = DOWN 52K

2009-07-09T07:47:00.006-04:00

Link to Current Data

LOL!

U.S. jobless claims drop steeply

Burried in the article:

>> The "seasonal factors" the department uses to adjust the data to provide a better sense of the underlying trend had expected a large increase in claims in the latest week. Actual claims in fact rose by a much smaller amount, which when seasonally adjusted, generated a large fall. <<

S&P 500 Top 20 by Weighting Q2 EPS Release Dates & Estimates

2009-07-08T11:44:00.006-04:00

A: I tried to C&P this data as a table, but it didn't work.
I've an idea on a work-around, but don't have time at the moment.

B: It drives me nuts that we live in a culture where we read left to right, chart left to right, yet disseminate "current" then "from"

Ex: "The company's Q2 EPS was $1.25, up from $1.00 in Q1".

Ex: "The JUN data was 1.25, down from 1.50 in MAY."

Information should be presented as "Data moved from 1.50 in MAY down to 1.25 in JUN."

Many earnings data sets are presented with most recent on the left.
Then put Next Q estimates to the far right.
WTH?
I have to waste brain power converting left to right to mentally graph time progression.

I hate (stupid) people.

PS, with the invention of electric typewriters we could have ditched the deliberately inefficient QWERTY keyboard and gone to the much more efficient Dvorak system.

Coulda done it with computers.
Coulda done it with Blackberries.
Coulda done it with current text phones.
Soon as this stuff moved away from professional secretaries into the domain of retail consumers the conversion could have been made.

I hate (stupid) people.

JUN Non-Manufacturing ISM : 47.0

2009-07-06T11:46:00.003-04:00